Lets say, just for the sake of this calculation, that you hold the maximum allowance of 30,000.
Once you factor this in, I reckon that if you bought all your 330 tickets on the Friday draws, youd have about a 1 in 25,839 chance of winning at least a million, either from the Millionaires Raffle or the main jackpot.
That comes to a chance of winning a jackpot, from your willingness to lose 330, of about 1 in 46,546.I couldnt find a recent calculation online so attempted to crunch the numbers for myself, and am posting the calculations here in case others also find them interesting.With the Lotto, 45 of ticket sales goes into the prize fund you expect to lose 55 of your stake.Your 30,000 bonds entered into 12 monthly draws, in which each bond has a 1 in 45,527,700,191 chance of winning a million.(Of course, in reality, youd almost certainly get less than 390, because that figure is skewed by the existence of the big prizes a few will get a lot more, the vast majority will get a bit less.Premium Bonds feel like a much more respectable investment, because you can always sell them for what you paid for them.
What about the Euromillions?
Here, 50 of ticket sales go into the prize fund, meaning youd spend 660 a year for an expected loss of 330.
The chance of winning this obviously depends on how many people in the UK buy tickets, which according to the Euromillions website is about 3,500,000 on Tuesdays and 9,200,000 on Fridays.At 2 a pop thats 330 tickets, each of which have a 1 in 116,531,800 chance of winning the big prize.However, we also have to factor in the Millionaires Raffle element of Euromillions, through which one ticket bought in the UK is guaranteed to win a million in each draw.Its worse odds than the Premium Bonds, and much worse than the Lotto.To put those odds in context, if you buy a ticket from a shop seven miles away, youre more likely to be killed driving home than to win the jackpot.That equates to around a 1 in 126,466 chance of winning a million in the course of year.By my reckoning, its not even close its the Euromillions, specifically on a Tuesday.Before getting into the figures, its fair to note that Premium Bonds seem to be a very different beast from lotteries.If you spot a flaw in these calculations, please do correct me in the comments below.If you buy them all for the Tuesday draws, however, those odds improve to 1 in 10,296.